2,949 research outputs found
Sequential Bayesian inference for implicit hidden Markov models and current limitations
Hidden Markov models can describe time series arising in various fields of
science, by treating the data as noisy measurements of an arbitrarily complex
Markov process. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have become standard tools
to estimate the hidden Markov process given the observations and a fixed
parameter value. We review some of the recent developments allowing the
inclusion of parameter uncertainty as well as model uncertainty. The
shortcomings of the currently available methodology are emphasised from an
algorithmic complexity perspective. The statistical objects of interest for
time series analysis are illustrated on a toy "Lotka-Volterra" model used in
population ecology. Some open challenges are discussed regarding the
scalability of the reviewed methodology to longer time series,
higher-dimensional state spaces and more flexible models.Comment: Review article written for ESAIM: proceedings and surveys. 25 pages,
10 figure
Path storage in the particle filter
This article considers the problem of storing the paths generated by a
particle filter and more generally by a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. It
provides a theoretical result bounding the expected memory cost by where is the time horizon, is the number of particles and
is a constant, as well as an efficient algorithm to realise this. The
theoretical result and the algorithm are illustrated with numerical
experiments.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures. To appear in Statistics and Computin
Parallel resampling in the particle filter
Modern parallel computing devices, such as the graphics processing unit
(GPU), have gained significant traction in scientific and statistical
computing. They are particularly well-suited to data-parallel algorithms such
as the particle filter, or more generally Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), which
are increasingly used in statistical inference. SMC methods carry a set of
weighted particles through repeated propagation, weighting and resampling
steps. The propagation and weighting steps are straightforward to parallelise,
as they require only independent operations on each particle. The resampling
step is more difficult, as standard schemes require a collective operation,
such as a sum, across particle weights. Focusing on this resampling step, we
analyse two alternative schemes that do not involve a collective operation
(Metropolis and rejection resamplers), and compare them to standard schemes
(multinomial, stratified and systematic resamplers). We find that, in certain
circumstances, the alternative resamplers can perform significantly faster on a
GPU, and to a lesser extent on a CPU, than the standard approaches. Moreover,
in single precision, the standard approaches are numerically biased for upwards
of hundreds of thousands of particles, while the alternatives are not. This is
particularly important given greater single- than double-precision throughput
on modern devices, and the consequent temptation to use single precision with a
greater number of particles. Finally, we provide auxiliary functions useful for
implementation, such as for the permutation of ancestry vectors to enable
in-place propagation.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figure
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